El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Thursday, June 8, 2023

In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive, reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions.

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